Earlier in the summer, National Savings & Investments (NS&I) announced reductions of between 0.4% and 0.5% from 12 September on three of its variable rate offerings, the most significant being a cut in the Income Bond rate from 1.75% to 1.25%. At the time, some of the press coverage commented that the move increased the relative appeal of Premium Bonds, where the underlying prize money equated to 1.5% tax-free interest.
Last month NS&I reacted to the resultant inflows into premium bonds by cutting the prize money rate to 1.3% from 1 August. The lower rate will result in two changes:
- The chances of any one bond winning a prize in the monthly draw will fall from 1:24,000 to 1:26,000.
- The distribution of winnings will alter (see chart), with an even higher proportion (98.1%) of successful bonds earning their owners the minimum prize of £25.
1.3% tax-free does not look bad if you are a higher rate taxpayer – you would have to earn 2.17% gross interest to match it, which beats any instant access account currently available. However, the 1.3% is theoretical and what you would actually earn depends upon lady luck. The statisticians say that the skew of prizes and the minimum of £25 means on average you will earn less than 1.3%.
| Value of Prize | Number of Prizes in July 2013 | Number of Prizes in August 2013 (estimate) |
|---|---|---|
| £1,000,000 | 1 | 1 |
| £100,000 | 5 | 3 |
| £50,000 | 9 | 6 |
| £25,000 | 20 | 11 |
| £10,000 | 49 | 30 |
| £5,000 | 97 | 58 |
| £1,000 | 1,142 | 789 |
| £500 | 3,426 | 2,367 |
| £100 | 33,552 | 11,891 |
| £50 | 33,552 | 11,891 |
| £25 | 1,831,461 | 1,724,014 |
| Total | 1,903,314 | 1,751,061 |
p.s. If you are thinking of that the £1m jackpot, then don’t plan your retirement on it! The odds of winning the top prize in the monthly draw are now less than 1 in 45,500,000,000.